Port Presents Economic Situational Analysis

The Port of Tacoma posed for itself a difficult task: Meeting the Challenges of the Global Economic Change, for today's breakfast forum at the Hotel Murano - and it was answered admirably.

No one can claim an unclouded crystal ball into the future or in wholehearted recommendations on a definitive response. The keynoter Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist, Moffatt & Nichol (who was most recently here for the Northwest Intermodal Conference May 19, 2008) did a creditable job in explaining the why's of getting here, the what's of here and the when's of a forecast. He recommended all to FDIC Commissioner Sheila Bair, who had identified the challenges to our economy several years ago, but lambasted other policy leaders who instead got us to where we are now.

In summary, his forecast:

• Near Term: we are starting a "low" bounce, becoming "less bad." We don't immediately go from "horrible to good."


• Mid Term: remember the economists' question at the beginning of the recession was would our recovery be graphed as a "U" or as a "V"? Seems now the recovery is thought to be a "W" for recovery by 2012, given the ability to manage the money supply to fit the economic trends.


• Long Term: is cautiously optimistic for 2012+. NOTE NOW: Some very knowledgeable and well-placed industry panelists during the later panel Q&A session expressed recovery by 2011 or even late 2010.

Kemmsies also reminded that globalization is about profit maximization, not cost minimization. Longer term trends he identified:

• INTENSE competition for the PNW


• the containerization of commodity goods.


• Mexico as a potential product customization nexus for both American continents


• No one is asking why Latin America doesn't have a recession

My recommendation: Go next year!

SAFTEA-LU Reauthorization- Call for projects

Congress is getting ready to draft the new transportation authorization to replace the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), which expires on September 30, 2009. This legislation is a six-year bill that authorizes our nation's surface transportation programs.

The majority of the Federal funds in the bill will be allocated by formula with the state departments of transportation, Metropolitan Planning Organizations, and local transit agencies determining which projects will be funded. However, a select number of Member-sponsored projects will be funded in the bill. Keep in mind that the number of projects in the bill will be limited.

If you know of a governmental agency that would be interested in submitting a project request through this process feel free to send them this form.

If you have any questions, please call or email Jami Burgess at 202-225-5919 or jami.burgess@mail.house.gov

A Clarification on HOT Lane Revenue

At the April 1, 2009 RAMP meeting Sumner Mayor Dave Enslow stated it is his understanding the revenue generated from the SR 167 HOT Lanes goes into the general fund when it should be used to help finance improvements on SR 167, specifically right-of-way purchase for the Extension project. I did not think that statement was entirely accurate but was not certain enough to speak up at the meeting. Since then I have done a little further research and here are the facts:

1. The SR 167 HOT Lanes were never implemented to generate lots of revenue. The primary purpose of the HOT Lanes was to make better use of the available space in the existing HOV Lanes thereby providing congestion relief for all users of the corridor. In that sense we feel the HOT Lanes are a success.


2. The revenue that is generated from the HOT Lanes is placed in a special HOT Lanes account that WSDOT is able to access to maintain and operate the HOT Lanes. To date, there is no money remaining after those operation and maintenance needs have been addressed.

Chris Picard
WSDOT Planning

Pierce County’s Portion of Federal Stimulus Reviewed- Part 1

Secretary of Transportation Paula Hammond and Charlie Howard of the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) visited RAMP on Wednesday to present Pierce County’s transportation portion of the Federal Stimulus plan.

Howard passed out a document describing Washington State’s $492 million portion of Federal Highway Administrations (FHWA) funds and the State’s $179 million portion of Federal Transit Administration (FTA) funds. Of the FHWA funds $77.9 million will be distributed by the PSRC to King, Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish Counties.

Pierce County will get $18,653,000 in funding for four projects, the largest being $15,808,000 for the Lincoln Ave. Grade Separation in the Port of Tacoma.

Projects were chosen for funding by the PSRC policy board based on a detailed policy framework.
Ready to go asap
Job creation
Ability to start and complete project within designated timeframe. If this does not occur the PSRC will lose the money and will not be eligible for other potential funds
Federal eligibility
Federal process requirements
Open and transparent selection process by PSRC boards recommending projects
Geographic, mode and project type balance

The State Legislature has chosen 6 projects to fund with their $156.1 million in of federal stimulus funding. The largest project on that list is $70 million for extension of the HOV network from the King County line to Port of Tacoma Road. Funding for this project was excluded from the Governor’s transportation budget. Pierce County Executive Pat McCarthy and RAMP strongly advocated for restoration of this funding or allocation from the stimulus package.

Part two of this blog detailing Secretary Hammond’s comments at RAMP will be posted on Monday. Check back soon.

Getting Twitchy about TWIC

The Puget Sound chapter of the National Defense Transportation Association's (NDTA) February meeting about Transportation Security & TWIC filled the Port of Tacoma's meeting room at the Fabulich Business Center today.

Doubtless, with this Saturday's imposition of the TWIC (Transportation Workers Identification Credentialing), all those with maritime interactions are realizing preparatory time is fast running out. Given the questions from attendees to the panelists:

• Dennis Hedlund, General Freight Services, emcee
• LT Jennifer Osburne, USCG
• Marvin Ferreira, APM Terminals
• Lydia Reeves, Carlile Transportation
• Rand Lymangrover, TOTE

....whatever preparation remains to be done is only matched by concern about how things will actually work.

By way of background, panelists swagged that 32,000 TWIC cards were estimated to be necessary regionally when the program was envisioned. To date, 31,286 cards have been activated, 3,340 are ready for activation. Of those, the Seattle administering office will be issuing either first or second notices for pickup.

For those concerned about past transgressions, panelists stated there were only four offenses that would permanently disqualify someone from receiving a card:

1. espionage
2. sedition
3. treason
4. terrorism

It was stated that of the pool of ~950,000, only 113 have been disqualified. And, given this late date before first implementation, it was estimated that cards could be received in 3 days - two weeks by native-born, U.S. citizens with clean records. Otherwise, background checks would typically take ~ two months.

And how will it all work for those showing up without TWIC cards, for foreign citizenry workers, ships crews, one-time delivery or pickup (by individual citizens or out-of-state, long-haul truckers), etc. - it all depends on the individual facility's USCG-approved security plan.

If you show up Saturday not TWIC-carded, prepare for delays and potentially refusals to accept or deliver cargo. The TWIC Help Desk is 1-866-347-8942.

Workers are able to pre-enroll for TWIC online or the Coast Guard's Homeport site. Pre-enrolling speeds up the process by allowing workers to provide biographic information and schedule a time to complete the application process in person. This eliminates waiting at enrollment centers and reduces the time it takes to enroll.

Pierce Transit Considers Service Cuts

In an effort to cut costs, Pierce Transit is considering cutting some low-use bus service.

The situation is a complicated one: Pierce Transit's largest revenue source is sales tax, so while the economy and high gas prices have contributed to considerable ridership increases in the past year, the agency's budget has shrunk as people spend less.

PierceTransit cut $5.7 million from its 2008 budget and is looking at a variety of ways to trim its 2009 budget. This week, staff presented three options to the Pierce Transit Board.

Click here to read more from the News Tribune.

Farrell Reviews Port of Tacoma Activity

Port of Tacoma Executive Director Tim Farrell was the guest speaker at February’s Transportation Club of Tacoma luncheon at C.I. Shenanigan’s on Monday. Farrell provided an overview of Port activity, emphasizing that despite the current economic climate the Port of Tacoma is still planning for future growth.

In general, carriers are seeking to reduce costs during this period by increasing efficiencies; decreasing ships, increasing ports and consolidating to share capacity on ships and in terminals. Although the Port of Tacoma experienced a 3.2% reduction in cargo activity in 2008, comparatively, nationwide Port cargo has dropped by 6.8%. The decrease at the Port of Tacoma is due in part to Mersk and K-line consolidations that have resulted in reduced use of their Tacoma facilities.

On the other hand, some unique characteristics of the Port of Tacoma help keep it competitive. The port has been working for the last thirty years to bolster its intermodal cargo infrastructure, which enables a quick cargo transfer from ships to rail cars. Union Pacific Railroad, in particular, is exploring opportunities to increase its Pacific Northwest operations via the Port of Tacoma as a result of this infrastructure. Similarly, the Port’s strong trade relationships with Alaska, Hawaii, Guam and trade-dependant Pacific Rim countries continue to fuel the Port’ container and bulk auto activities.
Currently the Port is working with NYK Lines to build a new terminal in the Port. Depending on the depth of the economic downturn, the new terminal is scheduled to open in July 2012, bringing 3,000 high paying jobs to the region once the project is fully built out.

Overall, Farrell is optimistic about the Port of Tacoma’s ability to ride out the current economic crisis and anticipates an economic recovery for the Port by 2012.

Pierce County Calls Legislative Delegation to Action

At this week’s RAMP meeting Pierce County Executive Pat McCarthy asked for RAMP's support in advocating to restore legislative funding for completing the HOV system in Pierce County and SR-167 right of way procurement.

McCarthy and Port of Tacoma Executive Director Tim Farrell are working together to assemble a broad coalition of public and private sector stakeholders to preserve and protect regional transportation funding for these projects. In her presentation McCarthy stressed that the coalition’s goal is to restore the funding for the most critical transportation projects in the South Sound. In her proposed budget Governor Gregoire has pushed out funding for Pierce County HOV lanes and right-of-way procurement for the SR-167 extension beyond 2015.

McCarthy is asking South Sound business and community leaders to sign a call to action for Pierce County’s legislative delegation, asking them to advocate to restore funding in the transportation budget for these critical South Sound mobility projects.

To have your signature of support included on the letter to the Pierce County legislative delegation please contact Randy Harrison in the Executive's Office.

Got a New Street or Sidewalk? It May Be Thanks to TIB

Seen a new street or walked down a repaved sidewalk recently? It may be thanks in part the Transportation Improvement Board (TIB). TIB is a Washington State grant agency funded by the revenue from 3 cents of the state gas tax.

Since 1990, TIB has provided about $200 million in street and sidewalk funding to local agencies in Pierce County. Major projects in Pierce County include the recently completed Tacoma D Street Bridge, Lake Tapps Parkway and Canyon Road.

Anyone can view TIB project performance measures and project information on the interactive TIB website, www.tib.wa.gov/performance/dashboard. View grants awarded to Pierce County agencies by clicking “Selected Projects” and then the map for Pierce County.

All TIB projects in any municipality can be mapped on Google Maps, just click “Project Information,” then “TIB GIS Project Mapping,” and selected the county and local agency from drop down menus in the upper right corner.

In 2008, TIB won the Award for Excellence from the Government Finance Officers Association and an Innovations Award from the Council of State Governments for its performance website.

Steve Gorcester of TIB presented on Transportation Improvement Board (TIB) projects in Pierce County at the February 4, 2009 RAMP meeting.

New Hope for Pierce County’s Delayed Projects?

In mid-January Joe Turner of The News Tribune reported that Governor Gregoire’s six-year transportation budget pushes key Pierce County projects off the funding horizon. The projects now scheduled to come on-line after 2015 include extension of carpool lanes on Interstate 5 from Fife to the Tacoma Mall, purchase of property to extend State Route 167 from the Port of Tacoma to Puyallup and construction of the Yelm highway bypass. Read the complete article here.

Robin Rettew, one of the governor’s policy advisors conceded that projects scheduled beyond 2015 will likely need a new source of funding (taxes, tolls, or Federal money) to get built.

However, instead of a commitment to regional funding equity, the Governor’s budget remains dedicated to replacing the Alaskan Way Viaduct along Seattle’s waterfront and replacing the SR-520 bridge across Lake Washington. Both projects will likely cost more than $4 billion.

In response to the budget, Pierce County Executive Pat McCarthy, Port of Tacoma CEO Tim Farrell, and elected and business leaders from across the South Sound are joining together to lobby the Governor and the Pierce County legislative delegation for the South Sound’s fair share of transportation dollars.

Executive McCarthy will speak to RAMP about her advocacy plans at the next RAMP meeting on Wednesday, February 4th (8 a.m. to 9 a.m. at the Fabulich Center, 3600 Port of Tacoma Road, Tacoma, WA 98424).

Bluest Skies You've Ever Seen Are in Tacoma

Carlile Transportation Systems today welcomed to its Tacoma fleet the first Kenworth Medium-Duty Diesel-Electric Hybrid Tractor to serve any West Coast Port.

Photo courtesy KathyTomandl, Port of Tacoma

The "tractor" is equipped with a fifth wheel to haul trailers for drayage business at the Port of Tacoma. I had the privilege of a short excursion aboard the new Kenworth T370 with Carlile Transportation Systems CEO Harry McDonald as chauffeur. McDonald said they expect a 20+% increase in fuel mileage from the hybrid for local haul applications.

This hybrid is a welcome addition to the commercial center of the port-industrial area. It will demonstrate the viability of hybrid commercial vehicles for this purpose - and we wish both Carlile and Kenworth be best of luck. In addition to having far more immediate applications than the $100,000 Tesla, the port-industrial area has been recommended for non-attainment status for PM-2.5 even though continuing monitoring shows results below federal thresholds. That final designation is expected from EPA Thursday, Dec. 18

Our Own Economic Stimulus Package

This community is about to embark on its most massive construction project ever; the Blair-Hylebos Terminal Redevelopment Project (BHTRP). At an estimated $1 billion, it dwarfs the new Tacoma Narrows Bridge at $800 million.

Early news reports were filled with the economic opportunity associated with this redevelopment, accommodating new terminal expansions and the redevelopment/repositions of others. Other businesses have been impacted and we've seen several pursue new facilities as this Port development has spurred other improvements.

The people of Pierce County, justifiably proud of the economic engine of the Port of Tacoma, have been treated to numerous opportunities to learn more about and to express preferences for how things are done as the project is improved. This Monday is the new deadline - extended from an earlier benchmark - now (Dec. 8) until 4:00 p.m.; everyone has another chance to share their opinions, concerns, preferences, choices and other perspectives about the BHTRP.

If you having yet caught onto this project - and are a quick study - you have just a handful of hours from this posting to do your homework and make a meaningful contribution. Comments may be online or via email.

RAMP Accepts 09 Legislative Priorities

Riding the Circuit - the Road to Everywhere

The Transportation Club continues to attract quality speakers with gravitas, featuring Ray Kuntz, Immediate Past President of the American Trucking Association yesterday.

But after his year on the rubber-chicken circuit, our audience was treated to a well polished presentation of the challenges confronting the trucking industry from a front-line fighter, plus a few glimpses into his vision for the future.

As Chairman of the Board and CEO for Watkins Shepard Trucking of Helena, MT, we can be gratified to have a Westerner at the forefront of trucking's issues. There wasn't much doubt that he considers the U.S. infrastructure system to be failing - the foundation of our status as a global power. Kuntz gave a review of several national (and state) systems that have gone to hi-way privatization for infrastructure. Uniformly, he forecasts private tolling fees of $1/mile, forcing trucks to use adjacent arterials systems.

And, he had a special forecast for Mexican trucking issues. There is no low-sulfur diesel refined or planned for in Mexico, although one firm plans to supply truckstops with tanker-trucked diesel. Mexican trucks will use non-low sulfur diesel, making them "dirty" trucks when traveling in the U.S. (via the FTA provisions). U.S. trucks, built after 2007 will have to pay the higher diesel costs of limited supplies when in Mexico. Kuntz laments that the real issues of NAFTA are never part of the public discourse.

Kuntz also is troubled by the cost of the next highway bill, which he puts at $400+ billion. He asks: "How do we fund this?" Plus, he asks how the trucking industry will respond to sustainability and climate change legislation, probably mandating carbon credits. He said the National Association of Manufacturers puts this toll at $1 billion.

Kuntz offers these solutions:

1. FIX CONGESTION. Focusing on congestion problems will cost $80 billion, with 3/4ths of that in the top 20 metro areas;
2. NATIONAL 60 MPH SPEED LIMIT. This will give greater fuel efficiency and reduce our consumption;
3. DO ALL OPTIONS FOR FUEL SOURCES. Do conservation. Do alternative fuels. Do drill more.

His observation - National legislation has proposed to eliminate larger companies (more than 50 trucks) from incentives, yet those larger companies are the ones doing fuel conservation:

• Adding APUs
• Buying fuel efficient tires
• Giving drivers fuel bonuses

These activities are saving his 700-truck firm $500,000/month. And, from us he got more than rubber chicken - he got salmon!

Multi-Colored Thread Ties Community-Post

A quick look at the WSDOT traffic congestion map in the left column, for I-5 as it threads its way between Fort Lewis and the Lakewood-DuPont community often looks a remnant from Joseph's multi-colored coat.

However, it doesn't evoke envy.

At Wednesday's (11-05-08) regular meeting, RAMP looked at Lakewood's efforts to rescue this increasingly congested section of I-5 from the pit to which it has been cast. Melvin Austin, Chief of Base Security and Access Control shared with RAMP attendees the data on those going into the post. He was clear that his concerns were with security, not being a traffic engineer, but that he worked closely and cooperatively with WSDOT. And, he has similar concerns on post with the end-of-day exodus.

With the problem defined, Ellie Chambers-Grady and Dan Penrose, City of Lakewood, briefed RAMP attendees on the draft OEA (Office of Economic Adjustment)/Department of Defense grant they are preparing. (This grant application is the first of part of two components Lakewood is seeking, the second taking a comprehensive focus on community impacts from Ft. Lewis's growth.)


TRANSPORTATION PROPOSAL SCOPE

1. Transportation alternatives analysis


2. Operational traffic model
   assessment of current traffic conditions
   determine future transportation needs of the expected population increase
   determine short term and long term priorities within the study area
   identify resource needs and potential sources
   provide a coordinated action plan


3. Project will be coordinated with the assistance of Washington State DOT
   

Executive Candidates Debate SR 167 and Tolls

Last Friday, the Puyallup/Sumner Chamber of Commerce sponsored a candidates’ forum for the County Executive candidates. Shawn Bunney, Mike Lonergan, and Calvin Goings were present. Pat McCarthy was unable to attend.

The moderator asked the candidates a couple of questions related to transportation. I did not take notes, but below is a synopsis of what I remember. RAMP members might find this of interest.

Question #1: What will be your approach to finding funding to complete large transportation projects in our area, specifically SR 167 between Puyallup and the Port of Tacoma?

Mr. Bunney: This must be approached on several levels. Federally, there will be a reauthorization bill in 2009. This may be an opportunity, and we can use Sen. Murray's clout. Maybe a special freight account with SR 167 as the centerpiece. At the state and regional levels, we need to fight for our fair share and stop sending our tax dollars to King County.

Mr. Lonergan: I have been working on the planning side for several years with the Puget Sound Regional Council and as Chair of the Pierce County Regional Council. An example is the PSRC plan which looks at transportation for the next 33 years. SR 167 is identified as an important part of the region’s needs. I would use RAMP as a vehicle to bring supporters of SR 167 together to develop and implement a strategy.

Mr. Goings: I will bring together a transportation workgroup within 90 days of taking office. I would like to work other counties for another regional package like the RTID effort. However, if that isn’t possible then we should put together a Pierce County only proposal. Either way, some proposal will be put together to go to the voters next fall.

Question #2: What is your position on using tolling a part of the solution for meeting the region's transportation needs?

Mr. Bunney: Yes, tolling must be part of the bigger solution.

Mr. Lonergan: Yes, look at the HOT lane experiment.

Mr. Goings: No, tolling is unfair to people who can't afford tolls. These should be "public highways."

I hope this is of interest. My apologies to the candidates if I did not adequately report the intent of what was said. If I did, I welcome corrections by replies to this blog.

George Walk

Transportation Model Illustrates Benefits of SR-167 Completion

The Puget Sound Regional Council has completed some really innovative modeling that examines who benefits most from the completion of SR-167. This information was shared with Cambridge Systematics, the consulting firm examining freight infrastructure funding in Washington state. Cambridge shared this information with the Legislature's Joint Transportation Committee this week.

The first notable data point shared with the JTC is that 85.6 percent of the benefits (as measured by improved travel time, reliability and operating cost savings) would go to passenger vehicles. Light trucks would capture 10.9 percent of the benefit; medium trucks 2.3 percent; and heavy trucks 1.1 percent. In recent years, some have described the SR-167 extension as simply a project to benefit the Port of Tacoma. While it is true that the freeway provides a critical link for heavy trucks traveling between the Port's terminals on the Tideflats with the warehouses and distribution centers in the Kent Valley, what seems to be lost in the discussion is how this freeway would be an enormous boon for the average commuter.

This leads us to the second important data point: a completed SR-167 would reduce the average daily vehicle-hours of delay by about 5.1% in 2020. What makes this number impressive is that it measures improvement not just in the immediate area of the project, but throughout the entire four county area (Pierce, King, Snohomish and Kitsap counties). It would be interesting if the PSRC could narrow their focus to just the SR-167 and I-5 corridor in Pierce and south King counties to see how large this number might actually get.

Nonetheless, the PSCRC data is an important reminder for all of us that finishing SR-167, a project that has been left undone for decades, would greatly benefit the average driver in Pierce County.

Container Tax Debate Heats Up

There have been some significant developments in the container tax debate in Washington State this week. As some may recall, the legislature considered a bill to impose a $50 per twenty-foot equivalent unit tax in 2007 (most containers passing through Washington's ports are 2 TEUs in length). That bill was amended to create a study of potential diversionary impacts of a container tax, as well as other potential alternatives for funding freight infrastructure. The Legislature retained Cambridge Systematics to conduct the study.

Earlier this year, Cambridge's subcontractor, Dr. Robert Leachman, validated industry's arguments that significant diversion would result if a tax were adopted—a 30 percent drop in volumes with a $30/TEU tax. What would this mean for Washington state? A loss of 9,415 jobs and $58.5 million in lost wages.

This week Cambridge concluded that even on major freight corridors, such as a completed SR-167, passenger vehicles, and not freight, received the majority of the benefits from each of these projects. They also found that heavy trucks, a subset of which carry containers, received the least amount of benefit.

Responding to this information, key legislators on the state transportation committees have said it is difficult to provide the linkage necessary to justify a container tax, especially given the potential diversionary impacts.

The World According to the Port

The Port of Tacoma featured its international representatives in a brief briefing just a short time ago.

Now, the Port has posted all the PowerPoint presentations online here, so the public has the opportunity for a more in depth review and reflection greater than that afforded in the short timeline of the briefing session.

Just to highlight the information, I'm sharing with you some of the information that most struck me. This is not necessarily the most important info presented. Some of that's in the eye of the beholder. You've got those online materials to review for yourself anyway.

Akira (Andy) Tatara, Director of Asia Last year China's #1 trading partner was Taiwan, at $62.4 b, up $28.1 b. California ports' new restrictions encourage transfer of cargo to PNW ports.

Jack Woods, Northwest Regional Sales Manager (Covering the Western U.S.) Decline in trade with Japan, China and Taiwan from the weak dollar. Change in exports up 22% in last six months. Looks for growth in non-containerized cargo, singling out the project cargo associated with development of Alberta, Canadian oil sands, over 20+ years.

Bill Wong, Hong Kong & South China Sales Representative Covers an area with 103 million population. Is seeing bulk cargoes moving into containers.

Volker Himmel, Director of Europe EU's GDP is 31% of world output, $16.8 trillion. U.S.'s #1 trading partner.

Joey Zhou, China Sales Representative (Shanghai) China's GDP is $6.9 trillion, #2 in the world. Growth rate in 2008, 10+%. Sees oversupply of carrier capacity and forecasts a merger within three years among Chinese carriers.

Susan Coffey, East Coast Regional Sales Manager (Eastern U.S.) Her region has the top 44 importers. There is an emergence of eastern ports in Asia trade -especially Savannah. Also, Mobile, AL container port, others. Sees a Customs backlog. The Southeastern ports are moving 40 containers per hour.

Daniel C.H. Rim, Korea Sales Representative He expects Korea to experience stagflation through 2008. Korea is the U.S.'s #2 trading partner. Still has the FTA (free trade agreement) subject to Congressional approval (a process delayed by Presidential politics).

Olga V. Romanyuk, Russian Sales Representative FESCO plans to build a 250,000 TEU capacity at Vladivostok.

Vincent Sullivan, Midwestern Regional Sales Manager (Covers Mid-western U.S.) Prince Rupert works! Port of Tacoma has no service to mid-South. Canadian Rail is interested in the Elgin-Joliet-Eastern RR, which skirts Chicago. There are political issues, but Mayor Daley supports the initiative. Inland ports with rail works for bigger customers.

In Chaos Lies Opportunity

Today's speaker at the Transportation Club of Tacoma featured Patrick O'Malley, President, Landstar Carrier Group, whose motto for the times: In Chaos Lies Opportunity.

As intriguing as the look at his company, here's a short snapshot of what he expects in the future of his industry: trucking.

CAPACITY: Those who have capacity will be winners. Since the downturn, 24,000 trucks have been sold overseas. They are not coming back.

FUEL: Some stabilization is ahead. Never a return to the glory days.

INFRASTRUCTURE: It needs rebuilding, regardless of who the owners are (states, cities, federal highways, ports). His company's position is that the feds should fund from fuel taxes.

SECURITY: Need coordination and standardization. Look to California's efforts as a (bad) example.

CREDIT MARKETS: (As of noon), it's irrational. There are 1 in 10 companies now whose market value (stock price) is less than their per share value in cash.

O'Malley thinks the bellwether on a recession will be unemployment, and will drive government economic recovery programs.